Q&A: What Are The True Chances Of Getting Pregnant Without Contraception?

We’re all taught in schools that you should only practice safe sex – and for good reason. Creating another life is no joke, and the reason we typically get horny is because we’re driven to make babies together.

However, schools err on the side of caution, and don’t really give a full picture into the reality of getting pregnant. The intentions are good, but this leads to false beliefs at best, and anxiety or fear at worst.

(Seriously, I always find it hilarious when a porn video has the performers saying something about how they just KNOW they’re pregnant after a single fuck.)

Anyway, in this article, I want to break down the ACTUAL reality behind pregnancy rates, and how likely you are to get someone pregnant each time you fuck them. Most people find these numbers quite surprising.

So, let’s get into it!

What Are The Chances Of Getting Pregnant From A Single Act Of Intercourse?

It turns out, getting pregnant is actually quite hard.

Assuming you use no protection whatsoever, and you cum inside of a woman, the chances that she will get pregnant is roughly 5% if she’s below the age of 30, with the chances dropping off further as the woman gets older. This means the chances are roughly 1 in 20.

By age 35, it’s 1 in 27, and by age 40, it’s 1 in 60.

Again, this assumes that you’re having sex at a random time throughout her cycle, and you end up cumming inside of her without any form of contraception.

If you ejaculate at the optimal time in her cycle – the few days where she’s most fertile, the chances can shoot up as high as 25%, or 1 in 4. However, since there are only a few days each cycle that can lead to pregnancy, it averages out to about 5% each time.

Why Are The Chances So Low?

It turns out, pregnancy is a pretty complicated process! Although we’re driven to reproduce, actually making it happen typically takes a LOT of tries.

This is why couples who are trying to get pregnant, and are taking extra steps to have sex at the optimal time can take up to a year to get pregnant before it’s considered abnormal, and doctors recommend exploring potential causes of infertility. 1 in 6 couples are affected by infertility as well, though half of those will get pregnant from year one to year two of trying.

In order for pregnancy to occur, sperm must meet the egg. However, an egg is released via the process of ovulation only once per cycle, and is only able to be fertilized for about 24 hours.

Sperm can live inside the woman for about 5 days before dying off – however, your fertility chances are the highest if you are inseminated no more than 3 days prior to ovulation.

All other times in her cycle, she is unable to get pregnant. Sperm can swim through her cervix, into her uterus and up into the fallopian tubes, but there will be no egg there to fertilize.

Even if the egg is fertilized, it has to travel down and implant itself in the walls of the uterus, with cells multiplying all the way down. Between 1/3 and 1/2 of all fertilized eggs never implant.

Even if that happens, up to 1/3 of pregnancies end with very early miscarriage, or what’s known as a ‘chemical’ pregnancy. A chemical pregnancy is a pregnancy that is only detected by a positive pregnancy test, but doesn’t make it long enough for it to be detected any other way, like through an ultrasound. Many people have miscarriages before they ever realize that they’re pregnant.

It’s quite common that sperm does indeed meet the egg – but it doesn’t survive long enough to lead to a full pregnancy. Despite biology’s best efforts, the odds are not in your favor.

Which perhaps is why we’re driven to have sex so frequently!

So, Why Is Pulling Out (Or Timed Sex) Not Safe To Avoid Pregnancy?

With pregnancy rates being so incredibly low, you may be wondering – why are we always told to use a condom, or birth control? Why isn’t it good enough to just pull out, or have sex on our ‘non fertile’ days? Surely there isn’t much of a risk, right?

Well, yes and no. When the consequences are as lifechanging as creating a new human, it’s important to take all available precautions. It’s the safest and most responsible thing to do.

According to WebMD, the pullout method is 78% effective over the course of a year. This means that after a year, 22 out of 100 women will end up pregnant. This is certainly better than those doing nothing at all – which has 85-90% of couples getting pregnant in a year, but much worse than something like condoms, which are 98% effective.

In other words, 10x less women who use condoms will get pregnant, vs. those that use the pullout method alone.

This is because trace amounts of semen can get released into the vagina prior to ejaculation. Or, some may end up spilling inside after you’ve came. Or, there may be some in your urinary tract, especially if you’ve masturbated or came already beforehand. Finally, let’s be honest – sometimes the pussy just feels too good to pull out of, and accidents happen.

Heck, I’ve even heard of women pushing the semen into her vagina on purpose, trying to trick unsuspecting men into becoming fathers. It’s evil, but it happens!

Anyway, according to a study published in 2017, the average American couple has sex roughly 54 times a year. This makes the average chance of getting pregnant while using the pullout method about 0.4% each time – or 1 in 250.

(That being said, the numbers may be different for women of childbearing age, who biologically may be driven to have sex more than the national average.)

0.4% doesn’t seem like a high number, right? Shouldn’t it be safe, especially if you’re tracking the woman’s fertile days?

This isn’t so safe either.

Unfortunately, there are no ways to know for sure exactly when a woman is going to ovulate. While some women are relatively consistent in what day of their cycle that they ovulate, this can vary from person to person, and from cycle to cycle.

Cervical mucus changes as ovulation approaches, but ovulation tests can only predict ovulation 24-48 hours before it happens – by detecting an increase in something called lutenizing hormone, which triggers the egg to be released (and potentially fertilized.)

Because sperm can live inside a woman for longer than this, it’s possible for a woman to get pregnant through intercourse that happened before the ovulation kit gave a positive result.

While she’s unlikely to ovulate right after her period ended or up to a week and a half before the next one begins, timing sex is a lot more risky than it sounds. Therefore, it’s not a safe option to prevent pregnancy either.

Closing Thoughts

People have good intentions when they emphasize the importance of safe sex. Being paranoid and anxious about getting pregnant has undoubtedly prevented many abortions, or many babies being born to parents who were not ready.

However, the idea that someone will get pregnant after having sex one time is just not realistic. Take precautions as if it will happen, but don’t freak out if you had sex once without contraception. Even in the worst case scenario – you came in her most fertile day, she is young, and both of you have no fertility problems, your chances of pregnancy are 25%. If you pulled out, chances drop to 1 in 250.

I work hard to dispel myths regarding sex and sexual education, without bias or any sort of political agenda. If you want to support my work, please consider signing up to my Patreon – even joining at the lowest tier goes a long way towards supporting my work.

If you have any other questions about anything related to sex or relationships, don’t hesitate to ask and let me know!

~ Lexi